One of the great "dirty little secrets" of world geo-politics is the high probability of the Saudis currently having long range missiles and the nuclear warheads that go with them.There's a rather interesting history to their quest, and it's even more interesting why the West isn't talking about it.
I have no doubt that the Saudis have that capability, and I believe that many governments know that to be a fact, including the USA and Israel.
Let's examine the path, and the facts that support such a claim, and also discuss the consequences of that development - as well as the reasons for the silence from all parties.
According to Saudi defector Mohammed Khilevi, who was first secretary of the Saudi mission to the United Nations until July 1994, Riyadh has sought a bomb since 1975. Khilevi produced documents in support of his charges that between 1985-1990, the Saudi government paid up to five billion dollars to Saddam Hussein to build a nuclear weapon. According to Khilevi, these payments were made on the condition that some of the bombs be transferred to a Saudi arsenal if the Iraqi project were successful. Khilevi also claimed that Saudi Arabia had provided financial contributions to the Pakistani nuclear program, and had signed a secret agreement that obligated the Pakistani government to provide positive security assurances to Saudi Arabia. Citing UN officials, The Guardian also mentions past rumors (dating back 20 years) that the Saudis wanted to pay Pakistan to do research and development on nuclear weapons.
http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_40a.html
In particular, the frequent high-level visits of Saudi and Pakistani officials during the last several years raised questions about the extent of Saudi-Pakistani cooperation in defense matters and possible clandestine nuclear cooperation between the two countries. For example, in May 1999, a Saudi Arabian defense team, headed by the Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz visited Pakistan’s highly restricted uranium enrichment and missile assembly factory, a visit that prompted a formal diplomatic complaint from the U.S. government. Reportedly, Prince Sultan was also briefed by Dr. A.Q. Khan.Khan also visited Saudi Arabia in November 1999 to attend a symposium, “Information Sources on the Islamic World.” The following week, Dr. Saleh al-Athel, president of King Abdul Aziz City for Science and Technology, visited Pakistan to work out the details for cooperation in the fields of engineering, electronics, and computer science.[8] In 2003, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf paid a visit to Saudi Arabia, and Pakistani Prime Minister Mir Zafrallah Khan Jamali visited the Kingdom twice. It is believed that the United States warned Pakistan several times not to provide nuclear assistance to Saudi Arabia.
- Ibid
There is a slew of evidence that Saudi Arabia sought to acquire nuclear capabilities as early as 1975 when a nuclear research center at Al-Suleiyel was created. Further evidence points to a transfer of up to $5 billion to Iraq from 1985 until just prior to the first Gulf War in a deal to further the Iraqi nuclear program in exchange for weapons, should the program prove successful. There was apparently also an offer on the table to pay for reconstruction of the Osirak reactor destroyed by Israel, whose covert nuclear capabilities make it a mutual concern of Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Lastly, several high-level exchanges between Saudi and Pakistani officials and a general warming of relations between these two countries points to Saudi Arabia not only having the intent, motivation, and impetus to procure nuclear weapons, but now also the means.
Then, in 2002, a son of Crown Prince Abdullah attended the firing of the Ghauri, Pakistan’s new nuclear-capable medium-range missile. Further attesting to the cordial nature of the alliance, Nawaz Sahrif, the prime minister of Pakistan deposed by Pervez Musharraf’s 1999 coup, was given amnesty in Saudi Arabia through a deal worked out between Islamabad and Riyadh.
Other evidence for having nuclear intentions stems from Saudi Arabia’s 1988 purchase of between 50 and 60 Chinese CSS-2 missiles. While these missiles are now largely considered obsolete, it is the purchase of a nuclear capable missile with a 3,500 km range and 2,500 kg capacity that is damaging to Saudi claims of innocence. Apparently of concern is the gross inaccuracy of the Chinese missile, rendering it completely ineffective for use with traditional warhead payloads. This points to a possible conclusion that one intended use could be with nuclear warheads, whose destructive radius negates the inherent inaccuracy of the missile. In addition, there has been recent speculation of prospective purchases of more modern Chinese missile systems (such as the CSS-5 and CSS-6) by Saudi Arabia.
http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion/printversion.cfm?documentID=3050
Those Chinese CSS-2 missiles have a CEP ( accuracy of hitting the target) of between 1,000 and 4,000 meters ( depending on the model version) .
The missile has a payload of 2,000kg, which was expected to be the weight of the hydrogen bomb under development in China at that time.
A conventional high-explosive warhead variant of the DF-3A was developed for an export order to Saudi Arabia in 1987.
The missile uses an inertial guidance, with an estimated CEP of 1,000~4,000m. The missile carries a 2,000~3,000kT yield nuclear warhead, but can also configured to carry a conventional HE warhead. The improved DF-3A version has an accuracy improved to 1,000m CEP.
Range: 2,500km (DF-3); 2,800km (DF-3A)
CEP: 2,000~3,000m (DF-3); 1,000m (DF-3A)
Launch Preparation Time: 120~180 min
http://www.sinodefence.com/strategic/missile/df3.asp
Now, launching such a missle with a 2,000 kilo conventional high explosive warhead is not very effective, since the circle of error within which it will fall (in the best case scenario) is 1,000 - 3,000 meters from it's target.
At it's best that means you can trace a circle 3,280 feet around your intended target - and know that the missle will impact somewhere inside of it. Two thousand kilos of even the best high explosive available today , landing inside of that target range, cannot be expected to destroy it with any reasonable probability.
Also, the Saudis haven't done any missile tests. That leads me to believe that they are deliberately relying on testing done by their allies, and do not want to make themselves obvious. Any nation that has missiles tests them, for a variety of reasons.
One, to make sure the people using them are trained - and also to let people know you have the capacity.
And, as I have said, no Saudi tests.
China also exported 60~120 conventional warhead DF-3 missiles to Saudi Arabia, though no known test launch has been made in the country.
- Ibid
Another interesting clue is the following :
Saudi Arabia is working secretly on a nuclear program, with help from Pakistani experts, the German magazine Cicero reported in its latest edition, citing Western security sources.
It says that during the Haj pilgrimages to Mecca in 2003 through 2005, Pakistani scientists posed as pilgrims to come to Saudi Arabia.
Between October 2004 and January 2005, some of them slipped off from pilgrimages, sometimes for up to three weeks, the report quoted German security expert Udo Ulfkotte as saying.
According to Western security services, the magazine added, Saudi scientists have been working since the mid-1990s in Pakistan, a nuclear power since 1998.
Cicero, which will appear on newstands tomorrow, also quoted a US military analyst, John Pike, as saying that Saudi bar codes can be found on half of Pakistan's nuclear weapons 'because it is Saudi Arabia which ultimately co-financed the Pakistani atomic nuclear program.'
The magazine also said satellite images indicate that Saudi Arabia has set up a program in Al-Sulaiyil, south of Riyadh, a secret underground city and dozens of underground silos for missiles.
According to some Western security services, long-range Ghauri-type missiles of Pakistani-origin are housed inside the silos.
http://www.forbes.com/finance/feeds/afx/2006/03/28/afx2629000.html
Here's some facts about the Ghauri missile.
Range
Pakistani reports state that the range of the Ghauri is 1,500 km/930 miles. The reports also state that the missile was flight tested on April 6, 1998 to a distance of 1,100 km/682 miles.
Payload
Pakistani reports state the missile's payload is 700 kg/1,547 lb. A report from January 1998 claims that the missile can carry a nuclear, chemical, or anti-tank warhead. Following the April 6, 1998 test, a reporter asked a Pakistani spokesman whether the Ghauri was nuclear-capable, and the spokesman replied: "My understanding is that anything that flies can carry any payload."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghauri_(missile)
How about those Saudi missile bases ?
However, in early June 1990, Flight International reported that, according to Israeli intelligence, the CSS-2 missiles were deployed and operational at two sites: al-Sulaiyil, about 500 km south of Riyadh and al-Joffer, 100 km south of Riyadh. According to the article, each site houses four to six concrete launch pads and stores approximately 60 missiles.
The East Wind's modified range/payload of 2,500 km/2,000 kg (conventional load) brings many countries within striking range, including Israel, the former Soviet Union, and Iran, though the missiles are said to be targeted on Tehran and other Iranian population centers, rather than Israel. The 2.5 km CEP of the CSS-2 missiles, combined with the cost of the purchase has led to a great deal of speculation about Saudi Arabia's intentions. The missiles are far too inaccurate to be used against any point target with either HE or chemical warheads. King Fahd has pledged that Saudi Arabia will not arm the missiles with unconventional warheads nor use them in a first-strike mode. According to a study by the Congressional Research Service, the Reagan administration received an assurance in writing that the Saudis would not obtain or use chemical or nuclear warheads with the CSS-2 missiles. To further allay such fears, Saudi Arabia signed the NPT in April 1988. To date (August 1996), no ballistic missiles other than the CSS-2 are reported to be operational or under development in Saudi Arabia.
However, the multi-billion dollar King Khalid Military City is reported to include nuclear missile silos and nuclear-proofed underground command bunkers with full arming and firing capabilities.
At one point during the original construction process up to 1,000 Chinese technical advisors participated in the construction of the complex. Continued Chinese presence is required for technical support, maintenance and training.
5. The CSS-2 was designed for a nuclear warhead and, therefore, has low accuracy. The unmodified version has a range/ payload of 2,700 km/2,200 kg. (The Military Balance 1989-90, International Institute for Strategic Studies, p. 219).
6. The price for the missiles, training, and support is placed at $1 billion to 3.25 billion. (Sunday Times [London], 23 May 88; "East Wind missiles chill U.S. Saudi relations," The Independent, 2 May 88, p. 12).
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/saudi/al-sulayyil.htm
Here is some satellite imagery of that base:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/saudi/al-sulayyil-weapons-storage.htm
Interestingly enough, the withdrawal from Saudi Arabia of US military forces occurred in the same time frame as the latter part of the build-up in the Saudi missle capacity. One has to think this has multiple reasons, as any aggressor nation would have to consider killing American nationals if launching a strike against the Saudis, particularly with nuclear weapons. That's no longer the case, at least in any great numbers, as was probable when the Americans had a large presence there.
The prime target of the Saudis, in my opinion, would be against Israel - and they have developed this capacity as a defense against the Israelis. Based on missle ranges, and threat level from other nations in the area, the only other possible threat would be from Iran - who got their start from the same people that helped the Saudis , quite ironically.
The teaching of the views on Jews, in the Saudi educational system even today, also provide clues to the reasons for that defensive position. That hatred is institutionalized, even today, in this post 9/11 world.
Christians still 'swine' and Jews 'apes' in Saudi schools
(Filed: 25/06/2006)
The report cites extracts from textbooks used in religious education classes for children aged between five and 16. It quotes the following exercise for the youngest children: "Fill in the blanks with the appropriate words (Islam, hellfire): Every religion other than ------- is false. Whoever dies outside of Islam enters -------."
It claims that older students are taught: "It is part of God's wisdom that the struggle between the Muslim and the Jews should continue until the hour (of judgment)."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/25/wsaudi25.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/06/25/ixnews.html
However, the report shows that these textbooks:
* Condemn and denigrate the majority of Sunni Muslims who do not follow the Wahhabi understanding of Islam, and call them deviants and descendants of polytheists.
* Condemn and denigrate Shiite and Sufi Muslims’ beliefs and practices as heretical and call them “polytheists;”
* Command Muslims to “hate” Christians, Jews, “polytheists” and other “unbelievers,” including non-Wahhabi Muslims, though, incongruously, not to treat them “unjustly”;
* Teach the infamous forgeries, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, as historical fact;
* Teach other conspiracy theories accusing Freemasons, Lions Clubs and Rotary Clubs of plotting to undermine Muslims;
* Teach that “Jews and the Christians are enemies of the [Muslim] believers” and that “the clash” between the two realms is perpetual;
* Instruct students not to “greet,” “befriend,” “imitate,” “show loyalty to,” “be courteous to,” or “respect” non-believers;
* Assert that the spread of Islam through jihad is a “religious duty;”
* Instruct that “fighting between Muslims and Jews” will continue until Judgment Day, and that the Muslims are promised victory over the Jews in the end;
* Include a map of the Middle East that labels Israel within its pre-1967 borders as “Palestine: occupied 1948.”
http://www.freedomhouse.org/religion/news/bn2005/bn-2005-2006-05-23.htm
The question remains as to why no Western government is giving much attention to this strong probablity that the Saudis now have the bomb, and the means to deliver it.
Israel cannot say much, as it too was quietly allowed to develop the same capacity.
America can say little, since it would be an admission that would cause great problems not only domestically , but also internationally. It would be quite impossible to go after the Iranian Shite bomb, after allowing the Saudis to get their hands on a Wahabi one.
So it seems that a nation can have close ties to terrorism and it's funding, teach hatred against Jews and Christians, torture and kill it's prisoners freely, and get it's hands on WMD from "friends" (Pakistan and China) with absolutely no trouble at all.
As long as you are Saudi, and have oil to sell - and great political connections inside the USA.
No comments:
Post a Comment